Adungu

By James Omara The joint offensive against the LRA by UPDF Special Forces, SPLA and DR Congo troops is now in its second month after the first attack on December 14. The question many are asking, however, is how long will Uganda stay in DRC to finish the operation?UPDF Special Forces prepare to leave Entebbe Airbase for Operation Lightning Thunder in Garamba, last month.

A military source involved in the Garamba mission told The Independent on condition of anonymity: “They gave us a month but the two countries agreed that there was room for review depending on the progress of the operation. We hope the Congolese will exhibit cooperation so we can go ahead and give a blow to LRA.”The Government has remained largely vague on how long the operation will take. It was only Foreign Affairs Minster Sam Kutesa, in the first press briefing on the attack on December 16, who talked about the timeline of the operation. Kutesa said: “The operation is meant to be short-lived and with just a few weeks of fighting, Kony should have been captured or surrendered.”  A month down the road, Kony has neither surrendered, nor been captured.

Rebels still roam north east Congo
On Monday, Chief of Defense Forces Gen. Aronda Nyakairima was due in Kinshasa to negotiate with DRC an extension of the agreement. The outcome of the negotiations will shape the future of the operation and how many Ugandan troops can achieve. Though the Garamba operation is a joint operation between Ugandan, South Sudan and DRC troops, UPDF currently has over 70 percent of responsibility in the war.So far the operation has not reduced LRA’s killing machinery. Within a month after the attack on LRA bases, the rebels have killed over 500 civilians as they freely roam the north eastern DRC province of Orientale.  A United Nations team recently reported more than 100 women raped in just two days in the towns of Faradje and Tadu alone. Army spokesperson Maj. Paddy Ankunda told The Independent that it is too soon to count achievements. “It’s true more civilians have been killed since our operation,” said Ankunda, “but we can’t usurp the role of FADRC (Congolese national army). It is their constitutional mandate to protect civilians from these attacks.”

Adaptation to LRA strategy
According to the agreement that gave Uganda a go-ahead to attack Kony’s base, the Congolese army was to close off the southern escape route while the Sudanese Liberation Army (SPLA) would guard the northern corridor. But this has not happened thereby allowing LRA rebels to attack civilians in areas around Garamba forest.Be that as it may, if Uganda is given an extended stay in Congo, it could be tempted to increase its troops there. Gen. Nyakairima has already hinted on that. He recently told UN Congo peace mission (MONUC) commander General Babacar Gaye at a meeting in Kampala that Uganda might send more troops to Congo. He said that with more troop deployment, the UPDF would “finish off” Kony.”Currently we have two Brigades (about 6,000 soldiers) and I haven’t seen any preparations to increase the force,” said a Ugandan military source. “We haven’t moved into a phase of combined arms element which would call for a cocktail of strategies.”  Army Spokesman Maj. Paddy Ankunda too could not commit himself on deployment of more troops but said UPDF had adapted to some of the LRA war tactics.”After the attack, the rebels indeed scattered but thereafter regrouped and adopted tactics of operating in smaller groups in which they can move undetected,” Ankunda said. “We have adapted and that’s why we were able to catch up with Odhiambo (Okot) group and killed two and rescued two girls including one from Central African Republic.”

Scepticism towards operation
The allusion to sending more troops to Garamba shows this could no longer be just an operation but a full-fledged war that will see Ugandan troops in Congo for many more months. But can Uganda sustain a war in the Congo jungle both financially and in terms of human resources? Leader of opposition in Parliament Morris Ogenga Latigo said sending more troops are not logical. “In Acholi we say shame makes a man eat poison. Sending more troops to revive a botched operation in Congo is acting in shame. The army should accept the operation is not succeeding and not waste national resources,” said Latigo.  Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a history professor at Makerere University, also paints a skeptical picture of what Uganda can possibly achieve even with more troops. “Uganda is fighting a highly mobile group which [knows] the jungle, and this plays to the rebels’ advantage. Unless Ugandan troops have highly sophisticated equipment, engaging in a long war will likely be fruitless,” he said.  He also said the state of lawlessness in South Sudan and DRC will make it difficult for Uganda to defeat the LRA. Some analysts say the only way Uganda can make a stronger statement than just attack and take over LRA bases is to declare a ceasefire and resume efforts for peace talks.

Ceasefire
Last week, LRA chief negotiator David Nyekorach Matsanga claimed Kony had called for a ceasefire in a letter to former Mozambican president Joachim Chissano who is the UN special envoy to LRA affected area. “The ceasefire is the only reasonable thing to do now. Even if it is for a few weeks, it would give a chance to try again and engage LRA peacefully,” said Latigo, adding it would also enable government review its military strategies which he said have not achieved much. However Maj. Ankunda insists the success of the operation is not about killing or capturing Kony. “Ugandans should know that it is possible to leave Kony alone in the jungle. Defeating your enemy is not about killing them, it is about denying them means and will to make war and that’s what we are doing,” he said.